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丁酉(鸡)年闰六廿九

【原创】【整理】滑向混乱的美国 -- 联储主席

复 350 阅 394895 2012-12-27 19:06:12
O 貌似这个统计数字不对头 2 任爱杰 字345 2012-12-29 02:44:16
O 确实,历史往往是这样的 13 黄土布衣 字322 2012-12-29 02:50:29
O Rome is Patriarchal society 11 任爱杰 字923 2012-12-29 03:09:39
O 1787宪法在理念上是对独立宣言的背叛 3 联储主席 字91 2012-12-29 04:00:59
O 这是另一个话题了。 4 天涯睡客 字104 2012-12-29 05:04:32
O 不存在,等中国第一了以后也许 桥上 字0 2012-12-29 06:54:45
O 我是这么看 18 联储主席 字572 2012-12-29 07:02:15
O 这些我整理的时候考虑过 9 联储主席 字660 2012-12-29 07:34:17
O 肯定是有一些问题 4 联储主席 字238 2012-12-29 08:05:10
O 可能是外国学生吧? PBS 字28 2012-12-29 14:51:48
O "taken" is a neutral term 3 parishg 字581 2012-12-29 16:01:53
O that's normal 18 parishg 字1844 2012-12-29 16:33:52
O that's fine. 8 parishg 字544 2012-12-29 16:40:23
O 在开国之初,三权分立执行的比较彻底 10 parishg 字1098 2012-12-29 16:54:01
O 世界各国的前途问题---就是大家会不会都进入拉美化 19 parishg 字909 2012-12-29 17:04:40
2012-12-29 02:44:16
3829854 复 3829532
任爱杰
任爱杰`1013`/bbsIMG/face/0007.gif`70`1366`19425`264154`从三品:银青光禄大夫|云麾将军`2003-08-08 13:26:25`0
貌似这个统计数字不对头 2

2014届的MIT大学生中,白人学生占36%,亚裔占30%,西裔占14%,非裔占9%;

哈佛大学则是白人同学56%,亚裔21%,西裔11%,非裔10%,印第安裔2%;

斯坦福大学白人学生35%,亚裔23%,西裔14%,非裔10%,印第安裔3%。

这些百分比加起来没有到 100% 啊。

百分比总计:

MIT: 36%+30%+14%+9%=89%

斯坦福:35%+23%+14%+10%+3% =85%

请问缺失的那部分学生是啥族裔?


2012-12-29 02:44:16
2012-12-29 02:50:29
3829856 复 3829848
黄土布衣黄土布衣`88434`/bbsIMG/face/0004.gif`70`1857`765`24610`从三品:银青光禄大夫|云麾将军`2012-08-21 21:23:27`0
确实,历史往往是这样的 13

当内部问题积重难返的时候,来自上层的“变法”几乎都是悲剧性的。不是一两个上层人物的品格和能力问题,到了所有人都发现问题的时候,已经是神仙也救不了。这也符合事物发展总是高潮和低潮相互交替的规律。不可能靠上层一两个人的“change"来把一个事物永远托在高潮状态。

真正解决问题的方法是:顺其自然。美元不是要崩溃吗,那就让他崩溃好了。


2012-12-29 02:50:29
2012-12-29 03:09:39
3829860 复 3829719
任爱杰
任爱杰`1013`/bbsIMG/face/0007.gif`70`1366`19425`264154`从三品:银青光禄大夫|云麾将军`2003-08-08 13:26:25`0
Rome is Patriarchal society 11

--You did not pass the first test in the ancient world: Roman Empire. Rome, from its origin, is a multi-racial society. Rome was found by taking Sabine women from another tribe. Even before the expansion, Rome itself is a result of multi-ethnical group intermarriage.

Indeed, Rome was found by taking Sabine women. However, please do NOT forget how they got these women, VIA Abduction and Rape!

Rome, was a Patriarchal society. As a result, the members of the society identified themselves with the bloodline passed from their fathers.

Also, please do NOT forget, before Rome became a Republic, Rome had been in the form of Kingdom until 509 BC. By the time the republic was established, Rome already formed a core major nationality: speaking same languge; worshipping same gods; believing in they were all decending from the same Patriarchal origin (no matter it was Romulus and Remus or Aeneas of Troy.)


2012-12-29 03:09:39
1787宪法在理念上是对独立宣言的背叛 3

但在实践上,是美国真正诞生的开始。

要是靠独立宣言,美国估计在1812英美战争就已经撑不过去了。


2012-12-29 04:00:59
2012-12-29 05:04:32
3829874 复 3829869
天涯睡客天涯睡客`48108`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`11890`8194`200060`正九品上:儒林郎|仁勇校尉`2009-11-27 03:17:35`0
这是另一个话题了。 4

不过美国的政体设计是共和而非民主,这点是很重要的。他们现在兜售民主,那是因为他们现在已经是“两只狼”了。


2012-12-29 05:04:32
3829883 复 3829799
桥上
不存在,等中国第一了以后也许
2012-12-29 06:54:45
2012-12-29 07:02:15
3829884 复 3829627
联储主席
联储主席`62061`/bbsIMG/face/0003.gif`70`6150`29790`417870`从四品上:太中大夫|宣威将军`2010-09-02 07:29:50`0
我是这么看 18

在三权分立结构下,权力的大小实际上是由搅局能力决定的。

类似不让我当船长我就把船凿沉。而白宫和总统,行政这条线无疑是搅局能力最强,也理应是权力最大的。

所以我觉得像杜鲁门那样说the bucket stops here,以为总统就是父母官的,就属于明显搞不懂的总统是干嘛的。

奥巴马也不像能懂的样子,太摆出一副要有所作为的样子,结果大家都来搅他,被花生屯当成公共刷分器。所以我说奥巴是个文人公知,其实心里很把自己当回事,表面假装不在乎别人不当他是个事,结果就是啥也不是。

不敢说好总统的标准,但我觉得称职的总统至少个性上得是个贱人,类似小布什。

打心底不把自己当回事,但绝不允许别人不当自己是回事。


最后于2012-12-29 07:15:18改,共1次;
2012-12-29 07:02:15
2012-12-29 07:34:17
3829888 复 3829810
联储主席
联储主席`62061`/bbsIMG/face/0003.gif`70`6150`29790`417870`从四品上:太中大夫|宣威将军`2010-09-02 07:29:50`0
这些我整理的时候考虑过 9

这些投票数据到底是体现了族裔倾向还是说实际上是反映经济地位的阶级现象。实际上经济因素可能更重要。

但最后还是作为族裔处理,因为经济地位和阶级划分都无法有效解释这些数据。而族裔问题和经济阶级,很大程度上也是彼此相互作用的。

比如说,新保守主义的崛起很大程度上是wasp用小政府低税收把种族歧视包装成了经济福利政策,以反击民权运动。

反过来说,而少数族裔对民权和反种族主义这些政治权利的关注,实际上又有多少是为了捞取经济上的好处呢。

从理由的正当性上,美国又没法喊共同富裕,所以我们经常觉得老美吃饱了撑的天天扯同性婚姻,堕胎权的淡。其实现在想来,应该是老美主流社会里的政治隐性高压线导致的。咱们这些外人以为他们是闲的蛋疼,其实人家是在用符合政治正确的黑话隐语说阶级斗争呢。


2012-12-29 07:34:17
2012-12-29 08:05:10
3829890 复 3829720
联储主席
联储主席`62061`/bbsIMG/face/0003.gif`70`6150`29790`417870`从四品上:太中大夫|宣威将军`2010-09-02 07:29:50`0
肯定是有一些问题 4

毕竟俺是在国内混的。

有些观点可能是在沿着有限数据和无限逻辑上走的太远了。虽然加了一些限制性条件,但肯定考虑不到所有变量。

所以开头和标题加了整理。各位对我关于最后结果的观点将就着看即可,但我相信我提的这些问题是肯定存在并且没那么好解决的。


2012-12-29 08:05:10
3829926 复 3829854
PBS
可能是外国学生吧?

外国学生不在族裔统计之中。


2012-12-29 14:51:48
2012-12-29 16:01:53
3829931 复 3829860
parishg
parishg`29110`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`3458`5419`100632`正四品下:通议大夫|壮武将军`2008-10-30 20:54:54`0
"taken" is a neutral term 3

please do not get emotional on those Sabine women: I did not rape them, so no need to show so much anger at me by using "!"

Romans come from many different bloodlines even during the Republic period.

共和制度的精髓在于精英阶层内部(跟屁民没有什么大关系)的权力制衡机制,共和制度不是种马,不需要血统越纯越好。

BTW, another modern day successful Republic/Democracy is called Britain. Britons are well-known as "bastards": with bloodlines from Celts, Anglo, Saxon, Nordic, and some Thracians during Roman empire period. So it is just another evidence against blood purity argument.


2012-12-29 16:01:53
2012-12-29 16:33:52
3829934 复 3829869
parishg
parishg`29110`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`3458`5419`100632`正四品下:通议大夫|壮武将军`2008-10-30 20:54:54`0
that's normal 18

Declaration of Independence mostly reflected the vision of liberal Americans, such as Thomas Jefferson.

There are two camps among founding fathers: pro-Republic-elite rule system (such as Franklin, Adams, Hamilton) vs. pro-平民统治 system (such as Thomas Jefferson). The latter was the minority 200 years ago.

George Washington was a smart fence sitter: he watched both sides fighting against each other and stayed as a well-respected impartial balancer in the system. He SELDOM expressed his own political vision.

Constitution is the compromise among all kinds of interests groups (such as the slave-owners in Southern States). Therefore, these two documents are not consistent in philosophy. Not surprising.

兄弟是高才,隔着个大洋就能看透这些文件之间的冲突。本人是在美国图书馆的political science 专著上看到历史学者的说明才醒悟的。

事实是美国一直是个矛盾的国家,一方面代表殖民地的利益追求独立,反对欧洲殖民; 另一方面又是一个大霸权。

deeply in its national soul, there are two different conflicting visions originating from their founding fathers.

The current U.S. history books (high schools, primary schools) gave kids the impression that founding fathers are 铁板一块,bunch of harmonious patriots who fought for welfare/interests of average Americans UNSELFISHLY. The fact is that they were just bunch of large slave owners and landowners who refused to pay taxes to Westminister without their rep. there. They just wanted to be their own masters and control their own fate and wealth.

At the same time, this bunch of people are DEEPLY DIVIDED, and VERY different from each other. They fought with words, persuasion and debates. They changed alliance over time. But 不同于中国的政治精英--动不动就用战争来解决彼此间的差异,分歧,美国的founding fathers 更善于妥协,用各种政治设计-妥协方案-时间的积累来减轻矛盾。

In sum, 斗而不破。


2012-12-29 16:33:52
2012-12-29 16:40:23
3829935 复 3829890
parishg
parishg`29110`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`3458`5419`100632`正四品下:通议大夫|壮武将军`2008-10-30 20:54:54`0
that's fine. 8

It is a free exchange of ideas/information. I just pointed out a few obvious factual mistakes.

I respect your insights. You are an active thinker. In another post, I praised you for your sharp observation.

After many years in States, I still need to correct mistakes in my own understanding/perception of this country. When I first came to States more than 18 years ago, many of my perceptions of US also turned out to be bias too. Steve Jobs reminded all us to stay hungry and stay foolish. In addition, it is beneficial to stay humble too.


2012-12-29 16:40:23
2012-12-29 16:54:01
3829936 复 3829674
parishg
parishg`29110`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`3458`5419`100632`正四品下:通议大夫|壮武将军`2008-10-30 20:54:54`0
在开国之初,三权分立执行的比较彻底 10

there was no balance from the judicial system in the Constitution. The Supreme Court won that right (judicial review) in 1800 through a famous case. So you are wrong. Supreme Court gained more power in 1950s/1960s through judicial activism.

在开国之初,三权分立执行的比较彻底,

--No, the most powerful branch was the Congress. U.S. president was elected by Congressmen. Presidency was modeled after the British King: national symbol, but with close to nothing in power.

美国总统的权力是很受制约的。但是后来随着美国的帝国化,总统的权力就越来越大了.

--No, there were two periods of power expansion by the presidency, both during the war period or under extreme economic situation. The first was during the Civil War (Lincoln) and the second one was in 1930s when FDR had to tackle banking crisis and the Great Depression. America entered the WWII in 1941, but his power has been expanded long before that.

American empire was a new phenomenon after WWII. It was a relucant empire drawn into international affairs.

Do not just Baidu and copy/paste Chinese documents. Check original English media.


最后于2012-12-29 21:00:12改,共2次;
2012-12-29 16:54:01
2012-12-29 17:04:40
3829937 复 3829799
parishg
parishg`29110`/bbsIMG/face/0000.gif`70`3458`5419`100632`正四品下:通议大夫|壮武将军`2008-10-30 20:54:54`0
世界各国的前途问题---就是大家会不会都进入拉美化 19

GREAT QUESTION! I admire you for going directly to the most important question, rather than wasting time on race/ethnical ones.

My answer is YES for the next 20 years, because greed can only be checked by fear. There is no fear for the 1% in both US and China. Why should they share the wealth?

Only new wave of revolution will scare the elites into reshaping this society into a more fair one. For the next 20 years, I see no hope. And China will not lead the world out of this vicious cycle, on the contrary, it is dragging the whole world closer into this vicious cycle. 中国没有自我调节的机制,中国只有周期律--周期性的系统崩溃与重建。Many Latin American nations are similar too.

Let's wait and see whether the American system can readjust itself and bring hope to mankind. I do not see any improvement in the next 10 years. I only see a long period of stagnation and high inflation in America.


通宝推:朱红明,联储主席, 最后于2012-12-29 19:14:22改,共1次;
2012-12-29 17:04:40
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